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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

But this year's race is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans improving together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still